The Burndrop Explained: A Speculative Vision — and Why ASTR Will Eventually Pump

[priceylife]

Everyone reading this thread should be very careful about the assumptions of the original post:

The third-party Startale ecosystem token has a FDV of $2B, widely recognized by the community (reasonable for a major consumer-brand-backed L2)

This is a HUGE assumption.

A new token that no one is aware of suddenly jumps to $2b FDV….? That would put it in the top 40 tokens according to CoinMarketCap.

This feels like wishful thinking, given the inability for Startale & Sony to get $ASTR anywhere near that valuation so far to date.

The whole thesis hinges on this arbitrage opportunity where an ‘obvious’ / free-lunch trade appears, as if the burndrop was going to give everyone 22:1 (2bn:90m) insta uplift in $ terms.

All of these theories need to also consider that the reward token could just as easily be startale app star points that can’t be traded anywhere on any open markets, and only usable within the app for ‘community/engagement’ activities.

I think we need to ask a serious question: Why would whoever this new token supplier is give it away for free? (because the ASTR burned gives them nothing)

• the new token may be worthless for the supplier beyond helping to onboard users to a platform where they will be expected to spend $ on other things – this feels by far the most likely option
• they may hold ASTR themselves, and want to benefit from reduced supply, but this is weak given it does nothing to increase sustained long term ASTR demand. It would just offer a near term temporary uplift.

Think back to the marketing/onboarding campaigns for:

• Yoki-origins = give everyone worthless NFTs if they bridge their ASTR from Astar (polkadot) → AstarZKEVM (polygon)
• Soneium = give everyone worthless NFTs + ACS points if they bridge their ASTR from Astar (polkadot) or AstarZKEVM (polygon) → Soneium (Eth/OP)

Both of those bridging routes were quite complex multi-step processes for the average user if we’re honest, so I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s loads of ASTR out there that never moved.

Is the burndrop perhaps just a better UX for trying to entice this once-engaged population to come and try out Soneium or Startale App (or similar new eco project).

I don’t mean to be negative or cynical, I mean to be grounded and rational - keen for thoughts.

[Marroz]

Hi, I’ll try to give you a reply based on how I understood the meaning of the original post (and more generally since it was created). These are just my assumptions, not the real thoughts of the author, who—if he feels like it—can reply himself…As for the value of the new token, it’s an assumption, you’re right, but not as unrealistic as it might seem. Let’s think about it: the two options most discussed in the community are these two: either the native token of Soneium, or the token tied to the collaboration between Startale and SBI (maybe linked to the yen stablecoin or something broader).We’re a small world, but here we’re talking about players on a completely different level: Sony with its consumer brand, Startale with the infrastructure, and SBI as a major regulated Japanese financial giant. It’s realistic to think that, if the team decided to go to market with a serious launch, the buzz and following would be significantly bigger—way beyond what we’ve seen so far with ASTR.As for why Sony and Startale never managed to push ASTR to that level and why they should succeed with another token… well, it hurts to say it (and I’m ready to be proven wrong), but I strongly doubt that the primary goal of either has ever been to massively pump ASTR as a standalone speculative token. ASTR seems more designed as an ecosystem utility (fees, staking, governance), while the real focus is on onboarding mainstream users through Soneium and the Startale App.The whole theory rests on arbitrage: you’re right, but consider two things.

First: whoever has the power to decide the exchange ratio can set it regardless of the final FDV of the new token. Even if it were valued much lower, the arbitrage (or exit) opportunity still exists anyway.

Second (I’ll put it bluntly): regardless of the new token’s value and the exchange ratio—even if it were 1:1 for whatever reason—I have the feeling that, for a bunch of reasons scattered here and there on the forum (including obviously ASTR’s price action lately), today any decent exit opportunity would be taken by the average ASTR holder without asking too many questions.So, in my opinion, participation in the Burndrop will be very high. Obviously, it would be even stronger if it were the only way to get the new token—and that’s exactly where you can see that the goal among the involved entities is not exclusively to pump ASTR. Let’s say it’s the Soneium token: I imagine participants in Soneium Score, those accumulating STAR points in the app, etc., will also receive separate airdrops.I think we should start from the premise that ASTR was supposed to be integrated/merged/absorbed a long time ago, but for some reason (technical, regulatory, or strategic) it clearly wasn’t possible, so they came up with this voluntary Burndrop thing as an evolutionary bridge.Obviously, I repeat: these are just my assumptions. The author of the post or anyone else can certainly disprove or add details!

[you425]

@priceylife

I think we need to ask a serious question: Why would whoever this new token supplier is give it away for free? (because the ASTR burned gives them nothing)

Regarding this point, I strongly feel that there are substantial reasons behind it. This is probably something that’s hard to fully grasp unless you live in Japan and have a certain level of understanding of the legal landscape, so I’ll explain it briefly.

First, there are extremely high hurdles to conducting a token sale within Japan. When projects do manage to clear those hurdles, almost all token sales are now conducted as IEOs. However, every domestic IEO in Japan has ended up trading below its offering price, and even the most recent one fell below the public offering price immediately after listing. As a result, the perception is very poor, and they are viewed as highly speculative.
In addition, from a global regulatory perspective, token sales almost inevitably increase the likelihood of being classified as securities.

Fundamentally, token sales are something startups do to raise funds. For large corporations, the only rational reasons to conduct a token sale would be for marketing purposes or to secure exchange listings—but if the goal is primarily marketing, the risks involved are simply too high.

That said, a token has little meaning unless it is held by a wide range of people. This naturally brings airdrops into consideration, but only a handful of projects actually succeed with them.
If the token obtained this time is related to Soneium, it’s likely that the Soneium Score will be tied to the airdrop. Star Points might also be involved, but that would be separate from Sony’s direct decision-making (and likely allocated from Startale’s portion).

To bring in new participants beyond those already engaged through Soneium Score, I think incorporating Burndrop without triggering securities issues is one viable approach. Compared to spending time and capital on an airdrop with unclear expected value, Burndrop offers more clearly defined conditions, making it easier for participants to join with conviction. At the same time, because it is not a token sale, the risk on the corporate side is relatively low.

Depending on the conditions, Burndrop may involve slightly more risk than a typical token sale from the participant’s perspective, and it requires a certain level of conviction in the token to participate. Precisely because of that, I believe it also increases the likelihood that participants will continue contributing to the ecosystem going forward.

[priceylife]

I think you’re agreeing with me here that the answer to the question I posted (and you quoted) is that the supplier is getting user onboarding in exchange for giving away this new token.

To protect this use case, I would expect the token to be somewhat useless outside of the ecosystem the supplier is keen to onboard us all into.

For example, Soneium uses ETH for gas, but I doubt the burndrop is giving out ETH at a better exchange rate than you get on CEX/DEX, because this would be expensive for them and you might just go take your ETH somewhere else and never engage with Soneium.

We should manage our expectations (although this might be best deal in town for ASTR regardless)

[priceylife]

Good points — I still feel that whatever is given is unlikely to have much use/value outside of Soneium or the Startale app at least for a period of time so that token holders are incentivised to spend/use them in the eco (aka onboard themselves to then be future customers of other stuff)

[Juminstock]

@you425

Regarding this point, I strongly feel that there are substantial reasons behind it.

As mentioned by You425, the Burndrop involves multiple actors who are closely connected to Startale, which means there are several aspects that do not depend directly on us.

The Burndrop PoC demonstrated, at a very small scale, what could potentially happen. Naturally, it was more focused on the UI/UX level and the experience the user might face.

As a side note, we are currently collecting feedback from all community members who participated in the PoC. If you were part of it, please complete this form: Astar Burndrop PoC - Survey. Your feedback on this event will help us improve the proposal for what comes next, so I want to emphasize the importance of filling it out.

@Ambassadors

[priceylife]

After ~2 years of positioning $ASTR as the ‘ecosystem’ token of Soneium, is this finally the first public reveal of true intentions?

[kebitorrent]

Astar, Startale Labs, Soneium and the state of our ecosystem

Rationally speaking, there are three choices if I write all the options which I can consider now. Soneium won’t issue tokens and ASTR remains the main collective assets on Soneium. Soneium issues tokens and tokens are swapped with ASTR. Soneium issues tokens, and both Soneium tokens and Astar tokens exist. For me, the last choice is the worst case, which I am trying to avoid. In the case of the first two options, this campaign is beneficial for ASTR value.